One of my usual morning routines is to drink my coffee while reading about the latest news. Today, more than ever, I find myself asking the same question:
Why does the world feel chaotic?
We are witnessing multiple international conflicts, rising tensions, climate disasters, and various social and economic issues. While such problems have occurred throughout history, we currently observe a shift in the dynamics of the international system. One significant change is the diminishing image of a strong and stable United States, which has traditionally taken the lead in establishing the international order.
As I analyze and reflect on the changes we are experiencing as a global society, I recall a lesson from my geopolitics class about a theory that explains the fall of empires throughout history. I can't help but wonder if this theory could shed light on the current decline of the United States and help us understand why our international system feels so overwhelming.
An empire is defined by its ideas of superiority, power, and international influence, among other elements. The United States began with its imperialist and expansionist ideas with the establishment of its Monroe Doctrine in 1823. This doctrine, integrated into its foreign policy, was based on the opposition to European colonization and assurance of America's freedom and independence. Thus, US interventions in Latin America were justified under the slogan of "freedom''.
Over the years, the United States proved its economic, political, technological, and military worth, taking on greater relevance after World War II and then with the Cold War. The Cold War was a period that determined the world order, and it was the moment when the United States took the world power.
Although the United States has maintained this power for long years, in the current global context, I think it is appropriate to ask ourselves: Will the United States' power have an expiration date?
Photo by Wesley Tingey on Unsplash
Now, according to academics and multiple investigations conducted with a historical approach, theories capable of explaining the cycles of empires have emerged. One of these is the "Theory of Long Cycles in World Politics" developed by the professor of political science, George Modelski. He explained that every social system changes due to regulation, which are effects or consequences that work to limit the international system and development, which are the effects that serve to expand the international system. (Álvarez, 2004, p.49). Modelski divides empire cycles into four phases: global challenge, Global Leadership, Delegitimization, and Deconcentration. This theory can be applied to the U.S. case, and that is why the respective relationships between the theory and U.S. history will be made.
The Global Challenge Phase is where a conflict arises and challenges the status quo of the international system and powers compete for global leadership.
In the first phase of the global challenge, we can determine that the conflict that changed the status quo was the Second World War. This conflict strongly weakened the European powers and gave way to the growth of the United States. After the end of this war and the beginning of the Cold War, we can observe the arduous competition for the leadership of the international system.
The Global Leadership Phase refers to a power that emerges from the conflict and establishes a new world order and institutions.
As for the second phase, after 1945, a new world order began to take shape at the same time as new international institutions were created, such as the United Nations Organization, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank among others. All these institutions were supported and created with the influence of the United States and many of these organizations began to give structure to the new world order.
In the Delegitimization Phase, the power's leadership is questioned. New challenges and competitors emerge.
Various moments give rise to the 3rd phase. At the national level, we can observe the internal weakening of the United States, due to the economic recession that increases inequality, the polarization of society, and its discontent. Also, we see a change in the international scene which directly affects the United States. According to the Institute for Economics and Peace (2024), we now have 56 ongoing international conflicts, the highest number of conflicts since World War II. Some examples are the Israeli-Palestinian war, as well as the Russian-Ukrainian war. Currently, there is a less proactive role for the US and a lack of pronouncements in favor of the preservation of peace. Likewise, the ongoing trade conflict with China reflects the commercial weakening of the North American country.
Finally, in the Deconcentration Phase, the leader's power weakens, and competition for global leadership intensifies.
I believe that the fourth phase is still unknown, and it will depend on how the effects of the new administration of President Donald Trump will impact the country and the international system. Both foreign and domestic policy will experience substantial changes with the arrival of the newly elected president due to his determination to return the United States to the splendor and abundance it used to enjoy. The slogan "Make America Great Again" now represents a powerful symbol that is sustained by conservative ideals, such as the anti-immigration stance and economic nationalism. By focusing on the internal issues, it is likely that little by little we will see how the prominence and leadership of the United States will fade away. We had a taste of this scenario in 2020 when Donald Trump decided to withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
I believe this theory provides a structured perspective to help us understand the origins of changes in the international system, particularly the potential decline of the USA. This decline offers a crucial explanation for some of the "chaos" we are currently experiencing. As people, it is essential to remember that cycles are inherent in all processes we encounter; everything that begins must eventually end. The decline of the USA as a global power suggests a scenario filled with uncertainty and confusion. However, it is important to emphasize that the end of one cycle presents an opportunity for a new beginning, one that can be driven by innovation and guided by the lessons learned from past mistakes.
References
Montagut, E. (2022, 20 mayo). Los inicios del imperialismo de Estados Unidos. Nuevatribuna. https://www.nuevatribuna.es/articulo/historia/inicios-imperialismo-estados-unidos/20180331183620150329.html
Alvárez, M. (2004). La teoría de los ciclos de hegemonía de Modelski en el siglo XXI [Biblioteca Central UNAM]. https://ru.dgb.unam.mx/bitstream/20.500.14330/TES01000327355/3/0327355.pdf
Nye, J. S., Jr. (2024, 6 febrero). Estados Unidos, grandeza y declive. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/with-trump-american-decline-becomes-self-fulfilling-prophecy-by-joseph-s-nye-2024-02/spanish
Staff. (2023, 11 agosto). Estados Unidos es un imperio en declive, sostiene el historiador Daniel Immerwahr. Forbes México. https://forbes.com.mx/estados-unidos-es-un-imperio-en-declive-sostiene-el-historiador-daniel-immerwahr
Institute for Economics & Peace. Global Peace Index 2024: Measuring Peace in a Complex World, Sydney, June 2024. Available from: http://visionofhumanity.org/resources (accessed Date 11 2024).
Agudo, A. (2024, 11 junio). El mundo alcanza el pico más alto de conflictos desde la II Guerra Mundial. El País. https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-11/el-mundo-alcanza-el-pico-mas-alto-de-conflictos-desde-la-ii-guerra-mundial.html
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